From backcasting towards forecasting

Bela Gold

Omega, 1974, vol. 2, issue 2, 209-223

Abstract: A comprehensive study of expected and actual industry growth patterns has suggested that a number of shortcomings in statistical forecasting derive from the role of "backcasting" in widely used methods of estimating probable future adjustment paths. After examining attendant problems and the conceptual bases for ameliorating them, attention in the paper centers on describing a technique for effecting some of these improvements and on analyzing the findings obtained by applying it to 28 series over periods of 60-80 years. Resulting implications for strengthening business and economic forecasting efforts are then discussed.

Date: 1974
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