Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems

Risto Lahdelma, Simo Makkonen and Pekka Salminen

Omega, 2009, vol. 37, issue 1, 79-92

Abstract: We consider multi-criteria group decision-making problems, where the decision makers (DMs) want to identify their most preferred alternative(s) based on uncertain or inaccurate criteria measurements. In many real-life problems the uncertainties may be dependent. In this paper, we focus on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems where the criteria and their uncertainties are computed using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. The simulation model determines for the criteria a joint probability distribution, which quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We present and compare two methods for treating the uncertainty and dependency information within the SMAA-2 multi-criteria decision aid method. The first method applies directly the discrete sample generated by the simulation model. The second method is based on using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. We demonstrate the methods using a decision support model for a retailer operating in the deregulated European electricity market.

Keywords: Multicriteria; Decision; making; Simulation; Group; decisions; Energy; Risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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