Subjective probability in forecasting

Hg Jones

Omega, 1975, vol. 3, issue 3, 321-327

Abstract: Practical examples of the use of subjective probability in forecasting are rare in the literature, yet in long term forecasting there is a large subjective element in choosing between alternatives. The paper indicates the background to the preparation of such a forecast in the whisky industry and discusses the benefits to be derived from a quantitative assessment with due emphasis on the recognition of the subjective nature of the quantification.

Date: 1975
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