Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension

Theodor J. Stewart, Simon French and Jesus Rios

Omega, 2013, vol. 41, issue 4, 679-688

Abstract: Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of “metacriteria” (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.

Keywords: Multicriteria decision analysis; Scenario planning; Decision making under uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2012.09.003

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