Forecasting accuracy and the assumption of constancy

Spyros Makridakis

Omega, 1981, vol. 9, issue 3, 307-311

Abstract: Statistical forecasting is based on the assumption of constancy, or structural ability in the data. This paper argues that such an assumption might not always be realistic in real life forecasting situations. Unfortunately, however, statisticians and forecasters tend to forget, or at least not make explicit this important assumption, thus creating false expectations which cannot be realistically fulfilled. The paper proposes a wider role for forecasting and makes specific suggestions to overcome the problems arising when the assumption of constancy does not hold.

Date: 1981
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0305-0483(81)90037-2
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jomega:v:9:y:1981:i:3:p:307-311

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

Access Statistics for this article

Omega is currently edited by B. Lev

More articles in Omega from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().