Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict

Mutaju Isaack Marobhe, Jonathan Mukiza Kansheba and Ziaul Haque Munim

Journal of Transport Geography, 2025, vol. 123, issue C

Abstract: This article investigates the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on maritime sector stocks using an event study approach, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during crises. Analyzing 32 companies across container, tanker, and dry bulk sub-sectors, we employ the Fama and French three-factor model to assess how maritime stocks respond to conflict-related news. Our findings reveal predominantly adverse stock reactions, particularly in the container and tanker segments, with the dry bulk sub-sector less affected. Notably, container shipping stocks showed significant declines following missile attacks on cargo vessels. Conversely, the market response to positive news, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, was muted, suggesting that good news impacts trading behaviour less than bad news. This study underscores the importance of monitoring news during major crises for theoretical and practical implications in the maritime industry, as it significantly influences stock performance.

Keywords: Maritime sector; Shipping stocks; Events study methodology; Israeli-Hamas conflict; Geopolitical events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:123:y:2025:i:c:s0966692325000134

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104122

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