Impact of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global crude oil shipping carbon emissions

Di Lyu, Pengjun Zhao, Weiwang Zhu, Weifeng Li, Yingkai Ling, Liang Pang, Shiyi Zhang and Yongjian Xu

Journal of Transport Geography, 2025, vol. 128, issue C

Abstract: Global shipping is a major contributor to carbon emissions and climate change, a dynamic influenced by geopolitical crises. This study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on carbon emissions from global crude oil shipping by analyzing 5.6 billion AIS shipping route records (January 2021–December 2023). The key findings are as follows: (1) One year into the conflict, emissions dropped 5.8 %, transport distances increased by 2.7 %, and shipping volume declined by 9.7 %. (2) Regional disparities emerged: emissions fell in the North Atlantic, Mediterranean, China, and Russia, but rose in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. (3) Early conflict periods saw volatile emissions, which later stabilized with the establishment of new routes. Regression analysis supports these findings, underscoring the environmental impact of geopolitical conflicts and offering insights for sustainable shipping strategies.

Keywords: Carbon emissions; Crude oil shipping; Russia–Ukraine conflict; Geopolitical conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:128:y:2025:i:c:s0966692325002029

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104311

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