Effects of additional capacity on vehicle kilometers of travel in the U.S.: Evidence from National Household Travel Surveys

Edmund J. Zolnik

Journal of Transport Geography, 2018, vol. 66, issue C, 1-9

Abstract: Adding capacity is one policy mechanism to alleviate congestion. However, the empirical evidence strongly suggests that additional capacity only makes congestion worse. This study analyzes the differential effects of additional freeway capacity versus additional arterial capacity on vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT) in metropolitan areas across the U.S. The analysis uses vehicle data and household data from the 2001 and the 2009 National Household Travel Surveys (NHTS) and includes stock and flow measures of road capacity, road congestion, commuter demand, and economic growth for metropolitan areas. Taking into account differences between metropolitan areas on each measure, the study adopts a novel multilevel model approach to estimate how additional capacity affects VKT. Results indicate that adding more arterial capacity slightly decreases VKT over a lag period from six years (1995 to 2001) to eight years (2001 to 2009), probably because adding arterials shortens routes between origins and destinations more so than adding freeways. Consistent with expectations, VKT is lower in more congested metropolitan areas, and in metropolitan areas that got more congested. Results also indicate that rebound effects (higher fuel-economy vehicles are driven much more than lower fuel-economy vehicles) will at least partially offset the demand management benefits of (gasoline) price sensitivity (higher gasoline prices decrease VKT).

Keywords: Induced demand; Vehicle kilometers of travel; Capacity; Multilevel models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692317307020

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:1-9

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.10.020

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Transport Geography is currently edited by Frank Witlox

More articles in Journal of Transport Geography from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().