Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

Patrick T. Brandt and Todd Sandler

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2009, vol. 31, issue 5, 758-778

Abstract: This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates--successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths--are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.

Keywords: Kidnappings; Skyjackings; No-concession; policy; Impact; multipliers; Poisson; autoregressive; model; Changepoint; models; Reversible-jump; Markov; chain; Monte; Carlo; methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:5:p:758-778

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