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Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Luis Alvarez and Isabel Sánchez

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2019, vol. 41, issue 4, 568-585

Abstract: Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.

Keywords: Inflation; Monetary policy; Phillips curves; Deflation; Targets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.09.005

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:41:y:2019:i:4:p:568-585