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The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?

Evangelia Papapetrou and Pinelopi Tsalaporta

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2020, vol. 42, issue 1, 77-95

Abstract: The paper examines the impact of population ageing on macroeconomic outcomes, inflation and labour force participation employing a sample of 23 OECD developed countries from 1960 to 2014 and accounting for the institutional context. Controlling for collective bargaining coordination the results show that a larger elderly share of population would lead to lower real GDP growth, albeit mostly in countries with low population growth rates. Ageing puts substantial downward pressure on inflation due to subdued aggregate demand. Also, results demonstrate that the ageing of the workforce tends to reduce labour supply. To mitigate any adverse effects of population ageing, a combination of labour market policies, pension reforms, greater investment in human capital and technological innovation should be prioritized in policy making.

Keywords: Demographic trends; Population ageing; Macroeconomic performance; Collective bargaining (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E52 J11 J5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.12.002

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