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Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries

Davide Furceri (), Swarnali Hannan, Jonathan Ostry () and Andrew Rose ()

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2020, vol. 42, issue 4, 850-859

Abstract: The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.

Keywords: Output; VAR; Protectionism; Macroeconomic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009

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