New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties

Mustafa Yildirim and Mustafa Erhan Bilman

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2025, vol. 47, issue 1, 78-96

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of two recent rule changes in European soccer: the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR) and the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. Specifically, it examines how these changes affect game dynamics, focusing on playing style indicators and disciplinary outcomes within the UEFA Champions League. We collect data on 1244 two-legged ties (2488 individual matches), spanning the seasons from the start of 2000/01 to the play-off stage of 2023/24. By analyzing the data at both the aggregate tie and individual leg levels and controlling for an extensive array of confounding variables, we challenge UEFA’s rationale for discontinuing the AGR. Contrary to UEFA’s justification for its removal, our findings reveal that the AGR promotes offensive rather than defensive play. Our findings regarding the VAR accord with the predominant view in the literature: less referee bias against away teams and increased aversion to risky tackles, hence, fewer disciplinary infractions. Given that the ties played under the AGR are found to be more competitive and thus more entertaining, our key policy implication is that UEFA should consider reinstating the AGR. Our results also suggest that the VAR should remain in place as it stimulates fairness and rule-abiding play.

Keywords: Match venue; Offense; Defense; UEFA rule changes; Football dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C72 D47 L83 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824001558
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:47:y:2025:i:1:p:78-96

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Policy Modeling is currently edited by A. M. Costa

More articles in Journal of Policy Modeling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().