Ruble resilience or euro dominance? The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the euro-ruble exchange rate

Sagiru Mati, Goran Yousif Ismael, Raad Abdelhalim Ibrahim Alsakarneh and Nazifi Aliyu

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2026, vol. 48, issue 1, 60-72

Abstract: The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war changes the dynamics of macroeconomic variables, including the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. While existing studies model the immediate impact of the war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate, a comprehensive understanding of the war’s steady-state effect on the Euro-Ruble parity remains crucial. To this end, the current study investigates the immediate and steady-state impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate using an intervention time series approach. The study finds that the immediate impact of the war resulted in a 21 % reduction in the daily growth rate of the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. However, the steady-state effect translates to a 26 % reduction in growth. Our findings have implications for trade, inflation, and investment across both European and Russian economies.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war; International economics; Intervention analysis; ARIMA; Economic sanctions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C58 F31 F51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:1:p:60-72

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.020

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