The effect of economic sanctions on world trade of mineral commodities. A gravity model approach from 2009 to 2020

Raul Caruso () and Maria Cipollina

Resources Policy, 2025, vol. 105, issue C

Abstract: This article employs a gravity model to examine the impact of sanctions on the trade of mineral commodities, classified at a detailed level (using the six-digit code of the Harmonized System — HS, a global classification system for traded goods), from 2009 to 2020. The dataset covers flows from 239 exporter countries to 38 OECD members. The primary findings highlight that: (i) a significant trade disruption is evident, characterized by an immediate 90 percent reduction, with a growing impact observed over time; (ii) sanctions-busting appears effective only in the very short term, albeit with weak supporting evidence; (iii) sender countries experience a decline in trade not only with target countries but also with third countries (negative network effect).

Keywords: International trade sanctions; International trade boycotts; Mineral commodities; Industrial raw materials; Gravity model; Trade disruption; Trade diversion; Sanctions - busting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F14 F50 F51 N40 N50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Working Paper: The Effect of Economic Sanctions on World Trade of Mineral Commodities. A Gravity Model Approach from 2009 to 2020 (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:105:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725001163

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105574

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