Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields

Istemi Berk and Volkan Ş. Ediger

Resources Policy, 2016, vol. 50, issue C, 193-203

Abstract: The dependence on imported energy sources is one of the biggest challenges that Turkey and many other similar countries face in the 21st Century and the gap between production and consumption cannot be decreased without increasing the domestic production. Forecasting of domestic energy production therefore plays a vital role in order to be able to develop sound energy policies towards maintaining sustainable development. However, although this question is essential in this respect especially for import dependent countries, the previous literature is surprisingly scarce. This paper, therefore, will be important for future studies on estimation of energy production. We first analyzed lignite production of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) from a historical perspective and then forecasted the future production by using the Hubbert curve, depletion rate, and decline curve methodologies. We concluded that the largest fields are about to enter a declining phase of production in upcoming years and most of the reserves will remain untapped if business-as-usual continues in the future. The methodology and interpretations may be used by other developing countries, which deeply suffer from energy import dependency.

Keywords: Production forecasting; Hubbert curve; Lignite; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420716302537
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:50:y:2016:i:c:p:193-203

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.10.002

Access Statistics for this article

Resources Policy is currently edited by R. G. Eggert

More articles in Resources Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().