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Copper price estimation using bat algorithm

Hesam Dehghani and Dejan Bogdanovic

Resources Policy, 2018, vol. 55, issue C, 55-61

Abstract: The most effective parameter on the value of mining projects is metal price volatility. Therefore, knowing the metal price volatility can help the managers and shareholders of the mining projects to make the right decisions for extending or restricting the mining activities. Nowadays, classical estimation methods cannot correctly estimate the metal prices volatility due to their frequent variations in the past years. For solving this problem, it is necessary to use the artificial algorithms that have a good ability to predict the volatility of the various phenomena. In this paper, the Bat algorithm was used to predict the copper price volatility. Accordingly, Brownian motion with mean reversion (BMMR) was chosen as the most suitable time series function with the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.449. Then, the estimation parameters of the equation were modified using Bat algorithm. Finally, it is concluded that the determined equation with 0.132 of RMSE can predict the copper price better than the classic estimation methods.

Keywords: Copper price; Bat algorithm; Time series; Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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