EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Kondratiev long cycles in metal commodity prices

Matias Marañon and Mustafa Kumral

Resources Policy, 2019, vol. 61, issue C, 21-28

Abstract: The hypothesis of cycles in metal and mineral commodity prices has been firmly documented. Studies in the last years, in the context of the unfolding of the supercycle, have been fruitful in the identification of long cycles. However, a less addressed aspect is their eventual connection with the long economic cycle theory or Kondratiev waves. This article presents the outcomes of an empirical inspection of Kondratiev waves in the real prices of the base metals, iron ore and gold for the period 1900–2017. The results indicate an important level of synchronization between metals prices and the Kondratiev waves. Thus, metal and mineral prices would be affected by the dynamics of long economic cycles (45–60 years). It is suggested to corroborate the empirical findings using the band-pass filters and a decomposition that takes into account these long cycles.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Kondratiev Waves; Commodity Price Cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420718304616
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:21-28

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.01.008

Access Statistics for this article

Resources Policy is currently edited by R. G. Eggert

More articles in Resources Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:21-28