Gold prices fluctuation of co-movement forecast between China and Russia

Wanxing Zhong, Rui Kong and Guang Chen

Resources Policy, 2019, vol. 62, issue C, 218-230

Abstract: In the past two years, China's gold development and investment in Russia has become a trend, the paper is conducted to provide the price reference for gold investors. This paper based on coarse-graining and complex network theory to build the fluctuation of gold prices' co-movement network structure by using the average prices of gold. Then analyzed the network patterns of critical co-movement modes, group, conversion and transition of the co-movement modes. The results show that the complex network is formed by one small group with 11 core modes and two large groups with the core modes of weak positive co-movement (yyyy) and weak negative co-movement (nnnn). The conversion between modes of different large groups requires an average of 6 days. Using weights of the nodes as probability to predict 185 days prices' co-movement from September 2017 to September 2018. The results may provide preferences for investors to avoid risks.

Keywords: Gold prices; Complex network; Patterns of co-movement; Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:62:y:2019:i:c:p:218-230

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.03.012

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