How critical mineral supply security affects China NEVs industry? Based on a prediction for chromium and cobalt in 2030

Zhen Yu, Yilan Wang, Xiaoqian Ma, Chuanmin Shuai and Yujia Zhao

Resources Policy, 2023, vol. 85, issue PB

Abstract: As an important means to enhance energy security and air pollution pressure, new energy vehicles (NEVs) are regarded as a strategic emerging industry in China, as its industrial development is severely constrained by the availability of critical minerals. Nevertheless, the existing literature lacks empirical studies on the impact of supply security of critical minerals on the development of China's NEVs industry. In this paper, we investigated the influence mechanism of chrome and cobalt supply security on the development of China’s NEVs industry by using the multivariate stepwise regression method and predicted China’s NEVs long-term production scale in 2030 by adopting the gray prediction model. The results indicate that: (1) The supply security of chrome in China has a positive contribution to the production of NEVs; (2) As an important raw material for battery production, the growth rate of NEVs increases significantly when the supply of cobalt is secured, and is expected to be 30 times higher by 2030 than in 2020; and (3) Driven by the government's energy-saving and environmental protection policies, the production of NEVs is on a sharp upward trend, and it is expected that NEVs output will reach 485.883 million units in 2030. Finally, relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on these findings. The government should take various measures to expand the supply channels, improve the comprehensive utilization of mineral resources to ensure the safe supply of cobalt, chrome, and other mineral resources, and promote the growth of NEVs.

Keywords: New energy vehicles (NEVs); Critical minerals; Supply security; Multiple stepwise regression; Gray prediction model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pb:s030142072300572x

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103861

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