 Reserves, well drilling and production: Assessing the optimal trajectory of oil extraction for BrazilJoana Duarte Ouro Alves and Weslem Rodrigues Faria Resources Policy, 2024, vol. 88, issue C Abstract: The global energy matrix is in transition, leading to expectations of a reduction in fossil sources in the coming years. Brazil has substantial oil reserves but has not yet considered optimization strategies for extracting these resources. The research proposed the calibration of a Hotelling model adapted for Brazil, with a focus on maximizing the economic return from extracting reserves. We employed optimization methods to calculate the ideal annual rates of oil drilling and production in Brazil. We also assess the sensitivity of these rates to changes in oil prices, well drilling costs, discount rates, and technical progress, according to the characteristics of the reserves. The results indicate that optimal onshore production would continue to decrease in the coming years, while offshore production may be nearing its peak. Assuming higher oil prices, offshore production is expected to increase over the next five years and decline thereafter. Keywords: Brazilian oil reserves; Hotelling model; Optimal extraction paths; Dynamic optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0301420723010528 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104341 Access Statistics for this article Resources Policy is currently edited by R. G. Eggert More articles in Resources Policy from Elsevier |
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