 Asymmetric effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on New Zealand's tradeResources Policy, 2024, vol. 92, issue C Abstract: We analyze how different types of oil price shocks affect trade and whether these effects are asymmetric. Our focus is on New Zealand, which has historically been a net oil importer but recently transitioned to an import-only model to meet its needs for finished petroleum products. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, we identify oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks using a recursive structural vector autoregression model. Then, we study whether the effects of these shocks on New Zealand's exports to and imports from its key trading partners—Australia, China, and the United States—are asymmetric using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models. The results show differences in the effects of different types of oil price shocks on exports and imports in the short and long run; however, there is limited evidence of asymmetries in these effects, especially in the case of exports. Exports to Australia and China, the most critical markets for New Zealand's exporters, are largely insensitive to oil price shocks. Keywords: Oil price shocks; Export and imports; Asymmetric shocks; SVAR; NARDL; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:92:y:2024:i:c:s0301420724003660 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104999 Access Statistics for this article Resources Policy is currently edited by R. G. Eggert More articles in Resources Policy from Elsevier |
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