Evaluating the bulk commodities supply risk from the perspective of physical trade

Jianlimin Wei, Wei-Qiang Chen, Chuke Chen, Yuanyi Huang and Linbin Tang

Resources Policy, 2024, vol. 93, issue C

Abstract: Geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, and other factors pose great risks to the stable supply of bulk commodities; however, cross-country and inter-temporal assessments and comparisons of various bulk commodity supply risks from the physical trade perspective are still lacking. This gap hinders a holistic understanding of global resource security and further appropriate policy formulation. Based on the Net Positive Import share, the Worldwide Governance Indicator (WGI), and the Bilateral Relationship Indicator which was innovatively quantified using the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) this study evaluated 32 bulk commodity supply risks (including agricultural products, metals, and energy fuels) in China, Japan, and the USA for the period 1992–2019. We found that the three countries have experienced different supply risk evolutions related to their diverse domestic resource endowments and socioeconomic developmental stages. During the study period, China had increasing supply risks for 20 of the 32 bulk commodities compared to 10 for Japan and the USA. The overall bulk commodity supply risk increased substantially for China, remained high for Japan, and remained relatively low for the USA. Under increasing global trade system uncertainty, in addition to the supply diversification strategy, we advise net importer countries to utilise news media data such as GDELT to monitor and analyse geopolitical changes, especially for major suppliers, which would help improve resilience to supply disruptions.

Keywords: Bulk commodity; Supply risk; International trade; GDELT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724004264
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:93:y:2024:i:c:s0301420724004264

DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105059

Access Statistics for this article

Resources Policy is currently edited by R. G. Eggert

More articles in Resources Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().