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Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States

Joseph B. Nichols, Stephen Oliner () and Michael R. Mulhall

Journal of Urban Economics, 2013, vol. 73, issue 1, 57-76

Abstract: We use a large dataset of land sales dating back to the mid-1990s to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. The price indexes show a dramatic increase in both commercial and residential land prices over several years prior to their peak in 2006–2007 and a steep descent since then. These fluctuations have exceeded those in well-known indexes of home prices and commercial real estate prices. Because those indexes price a bundle of land and structures, this comparison implies that land prices have been more volatile than structures prices over this period. This result is a key element of the land leverage hypothesis, which holds that home prices and commercial property prices will be more volatile, all else equal, in areas where land represents a larger share of real estate value.

Keywords: Land; Prices; Commercial; Residential; United States; Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (58)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:juecon:v:73:y:2013:i:1:p:57-76

DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2012.06.004

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