A system dynamics model of the investment capacity of China's power grid under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff reform

Xiaomin Xu, Zhiyi Wang, Yingying Zhou, Haoxu Cui, Shipeng Zheng and Xiao Guan

Utilities Policy, 2025, vol. 95, issue C

Abstract: Under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff (T&D) reform, power grid companies' profit pattern and operation ideas have significantly changed their investment capacity. To accurately assess the investment capacity of companies, this study first reveals the impacts of the reforms on the electricity sales side profit pattern. Then, a system dynamics prediction model is constructed to analyze investment capacity based on these reforms. Finally, the trend of investment capacity is predicted with actual data for a company, and targeted management suggestions are presented based on the sensitivity analysis for power grid companies.

Keywords: The third regulatory cycle of T&D tariff reform; Investment capacity; System dynamics method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:juipol:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000839

DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101968

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