Changes and drivers of terrestrial ecosystems in protected areas of China

Chen Wu, Bingran Ma, Chunting Feng, Weiyang Zhao and Wei Wang

Land Use Policy, 2025, vol. 157, issue C

Abstract: Protected areas (PAs) play a critical role in conserving natural ecosystems. Understanding ecosystem changes within PAs and their driving factors is essential for evaluating their effectiveness and optimizing management strategies. However, large-scale studies often fail to account for variability among individual PAs, thereby limiting their applicability. Here, we utilized continuous land cover data from 2011 to 2020 to analyze changes in the areas of four terrestrial ecosystems—forest, grassland, wetland, and desert—within China’s National Nature Reserves (NNRs). Random forest regression models were employed to identify the drivers of ecosystem changes at different levels: all NNRs, NNRs within different climatic zones, and individual NNR. The results revealed that from 2011 to 2020, the areas of grasslands, wetlands, and deserts across all NNRs significantly increased (P < 0.05), while forest areas remained stable (P > 0.05). At the individual NNR level, 63.16 % of NNRs exhibited stable desert ecosystem areas, whereas 40.80 %, 62.00 %, and 38.71 % of NNRs experienced net declines in forest, grassland, and wetland areas, respectively. Overall, topographic factors (elevation and slope) were the primary drivers of ecosystem changes across all NNRs, while cropland area changes played a dominant role in driving ecosystem changes at the individual NNR level. Additionally, ecosystem changes in the humid and semi-humid eastern regions were mainly driven by cropland, whereas those in the arid and semi-arid northwestern regions were mainly driven by elevation and climate factors. These findings highlight the importance of developing region-specific conservation strategies for NNRs, particularly by strengthening cropland management to balance ecological protection and sustainable agricultural development. This study can provide a scientific basis and technical reference for the management and conservation strategies of PAs at global or national scales.

Keywords: National nature reserves; Random forest; Cropland; Conservation effectiveness; Conservation strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:157:y:2025:i:c:s0264837725002170

DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107683

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