Likelihood of voting outcomes with generalized IAC probabilities

Tomas J. McIntee and Donald G. Saari

Mathematical Social Sciences, 2017, vol. 87, issue C, 1-10

Abstract: After determining all supporting profiles with any number of voters for any specified three-candidate pairwise majority vote outcome, a new, large class of “octahedral” probability distributions, motivated by and including IAC, is introduced to examine various three-candidate voting outcomes involving majority vote outcomes. Illustrating examples include computing each distribution’s likelihood of a majority vote cycle and the likelihood that the Borda Count and Condorcet winners agree. Surprisingly, computations often reduce to a simple exercise of finding the volumes of tetrahedrons.

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:87:y:2017:i:c:p:1-10

DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2017.01.003

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