 An empirical examination of the lead–lag relationship between spot and futures markets: Evidence from ThailandAmrit Judge and Tipprapa Reancharoen Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2014, vol. 29, issue C, 335-358 Abstract: This study investigates whether a lead–lag relationship exists between the spot market and the futures market in Thailand during the period 2006 through 2012. In a rational, efficient market, returns on derivative securities and their underlying assets should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. However, due to market imperfections, one of these two markets may reflect information faster. Using daily data, our results show that there is a price discovery in the Thailand futures market. We find that lagged changes in spot prices lead changes in futures prices. Our results are robust to the use of an alternative equity index. Our results show that the error correction model, which utilizes the traditional linear model, is found to be the best forecasting model. Furthermore, we find that a trading strategy based on this model outperforms the market even after allowing for transaction costs. Keywords: Market efficiency; Lead–lag relationship; Spot market: SET50 index; Futures market: SET50 index futures; Error correction model; Cost of carry model (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:335-358 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.05.003 Access Statistics for this article Pacific-Basin Finance Journal is currently edited by K. Chan and S. Ghon Rhee More articles in Pacific-Basin Finance Journal from Elsevier |
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