Decoding Chinese stock market returns: Three-state hidden semi-Markov model
Zhenya Liu and
Shixuan Wang ()
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2017, vol. 44, issue C, 127-149
In this paper, we employ a three-state hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) to explain the time-varying distribution of the Chinese stock market returns since 2005. Our results indicate that the time-varying distribution depends on the hidden states, which are represented by three market conditions, namely the bear, sidewalk, and bull markets. We find that the inflation, the PMI, and the exchange rate are significantly related to the market conditions in China. A simple trading strategy based on expanding window decoding shows profitability with a Sharpe ratio of 1.14.
Keywords: Chinese stock market; Asset return; Hidden semi-Markov model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Working Paper: Decoding Chinese stock market returns: Three-state hidden semi-Markov model (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:127-149
Access Statistics for this article
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal is currently edited by K. Chan and S. Ghon Rhee
More articles in Pacific-Basin Finance Journal from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().