Geopolitical risk and corporate investment in the metals and mining industry: Evidence from Australia

Lawren J. Rumokoy, Akihiro Omura and Eduardo Roca

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2023, vol. 79, issue C

Abstract: This paper examines how geopolitical risk (GPR) impacts corporate investment in the Australian metals and mining industry. We find a strong negative association between GPR and capital expenditures. Consistent with real options theory, firms are more likely to postpone investments during periods of adverse geopolitical events. The detriment of GPR is stronger on investments in ASX 200 metals and mining firms. Our findings further reveal a positive relation between GPR and stock returns, indicating the ability of investors to generate returns from the elevated market uncertainty that inflates the commodity price. The main results are robust in respect to alternative specifications and various estimation methods. In an era of increasing geopolitical tensions, competition for resources, and intense political polarization, this study provides timely insights into the dampening effect of GPR on capital investments in metals and mining companies.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk; Corporate investment; Capital expenditures; Mining; Australia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E22 G11 G30 G32 G38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:79:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23000574

DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.101991

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