New Zealand long-term equity returns and their determinants

Rui Ma, Ben R. Marshall, Nhut H. Nguyen and Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2024, vol. 85, issue C

Abstract: We document several aspects of New Zealand's long-term equity returns over the 156 years from 1867 to 2022. Remaining invested in the market has been an effective strategy. Investors with a 5-year (20-year) horizon lost money just 10% (<1%) of the time in nominal terms. Equities outperformed bonds in periods of moderate and high inflation, although bonds generated superior returns in deflationary periods. Returns over 5- and 10-year horizons can be predicted with a three-component model based on the “Buffett indicator”.

Keywords: Long-term returns; Equity returns; Bond returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:85:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24001148

DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102363

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