 Managerial macroeconomic perception and systemic risk in ChinaPeng Guo, Fuwei Jiang, Mengru Li and Yumin Liu Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2024, vol. 88, issue C Abstract: This paper constructs a managerial macroeconomic perception index based on the textual financial disclosures and examines its impact on systemic risk in China. We reveal a significant positive relationship between managerial macroeconomic perception, particularly the forward-looking managerial macroeconomic perception, and bank systemic risk. Our study shows that managers with optimistic perception about macroeconomic conditions tend to engage in excessive risk-taking activities and increase the risk contagion among banks. Heterogeneous analyses suggest that the positive relationship between manager macroeconomic perception and systemic risk is more pronounced among banks that are non-state-owned, exclusively listed in A-shares, highly leveraged, or not considered systemically important. We also show that macroeconomic policy can mitigate the negative impact of managerial macroeconomic perception on systemic risk. These findings highlight the substantial role that managerial macroeconomic perception plays in shaping systemic risk within the banking sector. Keywords: Managerial macroeconomic perception; Systemic risk; Textual analysis; Risk-taking (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:88:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24002579 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102505 Access Statistics for this article Pacific-Basin Finance Journal is currently edited by K. Chan and S. Ghon Rhee More articles in Pacific-Basin Finance Journal from Elsevier |
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