The effect of the Troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland

Richard Dorsett

European Journal of Political Economy, 2013, vol. 29, issue C, 119-133

Abstract: This paper explores the effect of conflict on GDP in Northern Ireland. A synthetic control region constructed as a weighted average of other UK regions provides an estimate of counterfactual ‘no-conflict’ GDP. Comparing this with actual per capita GDP suggests a negative impact of up to 10%. Excluding the increased grants provided in response to the conflict, a 15–20% reduction is evident. Most forms of terrorist activity had negative effects over the period 1969–1997. Deaths attributable to Republican paramilitary groups or to the State appear to have a greater and more lasting impact on GDP than deaths attributable to Loyalist paramilitaries.

Keywords: Northern Ireland; Conflict; Synthetic control region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 D74 E01 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:poleco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:119-133

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.10.003

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