On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies
Christian Conrad () and
Matthias Hartmann ()
European Journal of Political Economy, 2019, vol. 56, issue C, 233-250
Based on a cross section of 17 advanced economies and data for the period 1975 to 2015, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. We construct a proxy for the unobservable inflation uncertainty based on the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation from a Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). We show that long-run inflation uncertainty is high if an inflation-tolerant central bank governor is in power during a period of high inflation, if the policy rate is below the one that is prescribed by the Taylor rule and during times of heightened stock and exchange rate volatility.
Keywords: Inflation uncertainty; Central banking; Spline-GARCH (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E58 E65 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:poleco:v:56:y:2019:i:c:p:233-250
Access Statistics for this article
European Journal of Political Economy is currently edited by J. De Haan, A. L. Hillman and H. W. Ursprung
More articles in European Journal of Political Economy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().