 Interpreting pre-trends as anticipation: Impact on estimated treatment effects from tort reformJournal of Public Economics, 2015, vol. 124, issue C, 1-17 Abstract: While conducting empirical work, researchers sometimes observe changes in outcomes before adoption of a new policy. The conventional diagnosis is that treatment is endogenous. This observation is also consistent, however, with anticipation effects that arise naturally out of many theoretical models. This paper illustrates that distinguishing endogeneity from anticipation matters greatly when estimating treatment effects. It provides a framework for comparing different methods for estimating anticipation effects and proposes a new set of instrumental variables to address the problem that subjects' expectations are unobservable. Finally, this paper examines a specific set of tort reforms that was not targeted at physicians but was likely anticipated by them. Interpreting pre-trends as evidence of anticipation increases the estimated effect of these reforms by a factor of two compared to a model that ignores anticipation. Keywords: Anticipation; Medical malpractice; Endogeneity; Tort reform (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:124:y:2015:i:c:p:1-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.01.001 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Public Economics is currently edited by R. Boadway and J. Poterba More articles in Journal of Public Economics from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.