Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China

Hanming Fang, Long Wang and Yang Yang

Journal of Public Economics, 2020, vol. 191, issue C

Abstract: We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, 2020, on the containment and delay of the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We employ difference-in-differences (DID) estimations to disentangle the lockdown effect on human mobility reductions from other confounding effects including panic effect, virus effect, and the Spring Festival effect. The lockdown of Wuhan reduced inflows to Wuhan by 76.98%, outflows from Wuhan by 56.31%, and within-Wuhan movements by 55.91%. We also estimate the dynamic effects of up to 22 lagged population inflows from Wuhan and other Hubei cities – the epicenter of the 2019-nCoV outbreak – on the destination cities' new infection cases. We also provide evidence that the enhanced social distancing policies in the 98 Chinese cities outside Hubei province were effective in reducing the impact of the population inflows from the epicenter cities in Hubei province on the spread of 2019-nCoV in the destination cities. We find that in the counterfactual world in which Wuhan were not locked down on January 23, 2020, the COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province. Our findings are relevant in the global efforts in pandemic containment.

Keywords: Human mobility; Lockdown; Social distancing; 2019-nCoV; COVID-19; Disease outbreak (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I10 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (286)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China (2020)
Working Paper: Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:191:y:2020:i:c:s0047272720301365

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104272

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