One step ahead of the law: The net effect of anticipation and implementation of Colombia’s illegal crops substitution program

Juan Felipe Ladino, Santiago Saavedra and Daniel Wiesner

Journal of Public Economics, 2021, vol. 202, issue C

Abstract: Pre-announced policies often generate unintended consequences due to individuals’ acting to take advantage of the policy conditions. Little is known about the extent to which unintended consequences from the early announcement of a policy can be larger than the implementation effect, especially in contexts of weak state capacity. We use detailed 1 km grid square data on coca cultivation to estimate the net effect of the announcement and implementation of coca crop substitution payments in Colombia. Our fine-grain data also enable us to estimate geographical spillovers of the program to non-targeted neighboring areas. Using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we find that program recipients reduced coca acreage. Surprisingly, the reduction in neighboring grid areas is of a similar magnitude. However, the effectiveness was reduced by half, because farmers increased coca cultivation in order to be eligible for the program after the announcement and before implementation. But the policy’s net effect is negative: due to weak state capacity, the program could not be implemented in every region of the country.

Keywords: Policy announcement; Unintended consequences; Illegal markets; Coca; Colombia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: One Step Ahead of the Law: The Net Effect of Anticipation and Implementation of Colombia's Illegal Crops Substitution Program (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:202:y:2021:i:c:s0047272721001341

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104498

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