When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages

Yatish Arya and Apurav Yash Bhatiya

Journal of Public Economics, 2025, vol. 245, issue C

Abstract: Does exposure to conflict harm the electoral prospects of the incumbent government or generate a “rally around the flag” effect? Additionally, what role do politicians and media play in converting conflict exposure into votes? Using exogenous variation in conflict exposure in the home constituencies of deceased soldiers in India and a difference-in-differences regression, we find an increase in incumbent vote share in these constituencies, indicating a significant “rally around the flag” effect. Only conflicts receiving heightened attention in political speeches and media coverage exhibit this effect. These findings highlight the salience of political messages in shaping voter responses to conflict.

Keywords: Conflict; Voting; Leaders; Media; Issue salience; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 D91 N45 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:245:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725000544

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105356

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