EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data

Georges Prat () and Remzi Uctum ()

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2011, vol. 51, issue 3, 236-247

Abstract: Using Consensus Forecast survey data on WTI oil price expectations for 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 to December 2008, we find that the rational expectation hypothesis is rejected and that none of the traditional extrapolative, regressive and adaptive processes fits the data by itself. We suggest a mixed expectation model defined as a linear combination of these traditional processes, which we interpret as the aggregation of individual mixing behavior and of heterogenous groups of agents using these simple processes. This approach is consistent with the economically rational expectations theory. We show that the target oil price included in the regressive component of this model depends on the long-run marginal cost of crude oil production and on short term macroeconomic fundamentals whose effects are subject to structural changes. For the two horizons, estimation results provide evidence for our mixed expectation model incorporating this break-dependent target price.

Keywords: Expectations; formation; Oil; price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976911000111
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data (2009) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:3:p:236-247

Access Statistics for this article

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance is currently edited by R. J. Arnould and J. E. Finnerty

More articles in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2021-07-08
Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:3:p:236-247