Betting on presidential elections: Should we buy stocks connected with the winning party?

Chung-Hua Shen and Chih-Yung Lin

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2015, vol. 56, issue C, 98-109

Abstract: This study discusses whether political connection (PC) affects investor trading decisions. We approach the issue by examining the equity share trading of foreign investors, insiders, and individual investors, and the stock returns of politically connected firms in the 2008 Taiwanese presidential election. We classified investors into two categories, namely, more PC-based and less PC-based investors. More PC-based investors invest more in firms connected with the winning party and obtain higher abnormal returns, whereas the opposite holds for less PC-based investors. We posit that foreign investors are more PC-based, whereas insiders and individual investors are less PC-based. Evidence suggests that PC is influential in the trading decisions of investors.

Keywords: Political connection; Trading decision; Firm value; PC-based investors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G14 G18 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:56:y:2015:i:c:p:98-109

DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2014.09.007

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