Uncertainty in long-term macroeconomic forecasts: Ex post evaluation of forecasts by economics researchers

Masayuki Morikawa

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2022, vol. 85, issue C, 8-15

Abstract: This study presents an ex post evaluation of the accuracy of long-term macroeconomic forecasts presented by economics researchers. The economic growth and inflation forecasts for the next ten years are biased upward. Economic growth forecasts by academic researchers are less upwardly biased than those by professional forecasters in private institutes and that by the government. However, the upward bias of academic researchers specializing in macroeconomics and economic growth is larger than those in the other research fields. These results indicate that long-term economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty, even for economists.

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecast; Forecast error; Uncertainty; Economic growth; Inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E37 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976920301344
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Uncertainty in Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts: Ex post Evaluation of Forecasts by Economics Researchers (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:85:y:2022:i:c:p:8-15

DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.10.017

Access Statistics for this article

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance is currently edited by R. J. Arnould and J. E. Finnerty

More articles in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().