Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries

Bas van Ruijven, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Willem Boskaljon, Maarten L. Neelis, Deger Saygin and Martin K. Patel

Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 2016, vol. 112, issue C, 15-36

Abstract: This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO2 emissions. Without climate policy, the future projections based on the SSP2 scenario show a rapid increase in the consumption of steel and cement over the next few decades, after which demand levels are projected to stabilize. This implies that over the scenario period, CO2 emissions are projected to peak in the next decades followed by a decrease below 2010 levels in 2050. There is considerable scope to mitigate CO2 emissions from steel and cement industries, leading to resp. 80–90% and 40–80% reduction below 2010 in 2050 for a high carbon tax of 100 $/tCO2+4%pa depending on the availability of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS).

Keywords: Cement; Iron & steel; Energy & emissions; Scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:recore:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:15-36

DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.016

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