Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications

Petter Walan, Simon Davidsson, Sheshti Johansson and Mikael Höök

Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 2014, vol. 93, issue C, 178-187

Abstract: Numerous recent studies discuss phosphate rock extraction, and some even propose that a peak in production could be reached in coming decades. This would have great consequences as phosphate rock based fertilizers are irreplaceable in modern agriculture. Studies suggesting an impending peak commonly use curve fitting models where mathematical functions are fitted to historical world production data, while studies using other methods reach completely different results. Also, a sudden increase in global reserve estimates is commonly used to dismiss these warnings, and has somewhat altered the debate. The recent multiplication of estimated reserves is mostly based on an increase of the Moroccan reserve estimate, leading to Morocco currently making up most of the global reserves. This study models global phosphate rock production using a disaggregated curve fitting model based on the production in individual major producing countries, providing a somewhat different view than most studies, and show that the global trade of phosphate rock could be completely dependent on Morocco in the future. There are several different factors that can potentially limit global production and these factors should be considered for the individual producing countries. Society's total dependence on phosphate rock should be further investigated despite claims of large resource occurrences.

Keywords: Phosphorus; Phosphate rock; Peak minerals; Resource depletion; Fertilizer; Curve fitting modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:recore:v:93:y:2014:i:c:p:178-187

DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.10.011

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