A Monte Carlo simulation for the assessment of Bayesian updating in dynamic systems

Antonis Targoutzidis

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2012, vol. 100, issue C, 125-132

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explore the effectiveness of Bayesian updating, especially in dynamic systems, where failure probability is variant in time. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation it was tested whether (a) Bayesian updating and (b) dynamic behavior of failure probability lead to more risky behavior. The results indicate that Bayesian updating systematically lead to more risky behavior of the system, unless the prior failure probability estimates have been severely underestimated and that dynamic systems lead to more risky behavior only when Bayesian updating is applied.

Keywords: Bayesian updating; Monte Carlo; Failure probability; Complexity; Dynamic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832011002833
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:100:y:2012:i:c:p:125-132

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.020

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().