Subset Simulation of a reliability model for radioactive waste repository performance assessment
F. Cadini,
D. Avram,
N. Pedroni and
E. Zio
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2012, vol. 100, issue C, 75-83
Abstract:
In this paper, we show an original application of the Subset Simulation (SS) technique on a model for the performance assessment of a near surface radioactive waste repository. The logic of the protective barriers of the repository is represented by a reliability model. The SS approach is founded on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional probabilities of some intermediate events; with a proper choice of the conditional events, the conditional probabilities can be sufficiently large to allow accurate estimation with a small number of samples. In the application, the method allows improving the efficiency of the random sampling for estimating the repository containment failure probability. Moreover, the peculiar set-partitioning scheme of the SS method is exploited for performing the analysis of the sensitivity of the failure probability estimate to the uncertain model parameters.
Keywords: Radioactive waste repository; Performance assessment; Reliability model; Subset Simulation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:100:y:2012:i:c:p:75-83
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.012
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