Application of Dempster–Shafer theory for the quantification and propagation of the uncertainty caused by the use of AIS data

Alejandro Talavera, Ricardo Aguasca, Galván, Blas and Cacereño, Andrés

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2013, vol. 111, issue C, 95-105

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel method to quantify the uncertainty inherent to the paths that ships will navigate in the future, from the information provided by the AIS system on the paths followed by the ships in the past. In the framework of the Dempster–Shafer theory, the proposed method analyzes the information contained in a known distribution of vessel traffic on a waterway to construct the corresponding Dempster–Shafer structure. From this structure, using the confidence limits of Kolmogorov–Smirnov, it is possible to estimate the evidential measures (belief and plausibility) of all possible distributions of traffic on that waterway.

Keywords: Maritime traffic safety; Collision probability; Uncertainty; Dempster–Shafer theory; Data AIS; Canary islands (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:111:y:2013:i:c:p:95-105

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.10.007

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