A probabilistic model for a gas explosion due to leakages in the grey cast iron gas mains

Monika B. Forys, Dorota Kurowicka and Bas Peppelman

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2013, vol. 119, issue C, 270-279

Abstract: In this paper we propose a model for the probability of an explosion caused by a leakage form grey cast iron pipes in the city of Amsterdam as a function of pipeline and environmental characteristics. The parameters in the model are quantified, with uncertainty, using historical data and structured expert judgment, by use of the Classical Model. Eleven experts from Dutch distribution system operators (DSO) and Kiwa Gas Technology participated in the research. The model has to provide the overall probability of an explosion per year and a prioritization of pipes in terms of their potential contribution to the probability of explosion, which can help DSO's to prioritize their replacements.

Keywords: Risk analysis; Expert judgment; Gas pipes; Monte Carlo simulation; Corrosion; Third party interference; Joint failure bending stress; Grey cast iron (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:119:y:2013:i:c:p:270-279

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.034

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