Bayesian modeling of multi-state hierarchical systems with multi-level information aggregation

Mingyang Li, Jian Liu, Jing Li and Byoung Uk Kim

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2014, vol. 124, issue C, 158-164

Abstract: Reliability modeling of multi-state hierarchical systems is challenging because of the complex system structures and imbalanced reliability information available at different system levels. This paper proposes a Bayesian multi-level information aggregation approach to model the reliability of multi-level hierarchical systems by utilizing all available reliability information throughout the system. Cascading failure dependency among components and/or sub-systems at the same level is explicitly considered. The proposed methodology can significantly improve the accuracy of system-level reliability modeling. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: System reliability; Multiple failure states; Hierarchical structure; Bayesian networks; Prior elicitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:158-164

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.12.001

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