A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction

Xianguo Wu, Huitao Liu, Limao Zhang, Miroslaw J. Skibniewski, Qianli Deng and Jiaying Teng

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, vol. 134, issue C, 157-168

Abstract: This paper presents a systemic decision approach with step-by-step procedures based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), aiming to provide guidelines for dynamic safety analysis of the tunnel-induced road surface damage over time. The proposed DBN-based approach can accurately illustrate the dynamic and updated feature of geological, design and mechanical variables as the construction progress evolves, in order to overcome deficiencies of traditional fault analysis methods. Adopting the predictive, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis techniques in the DBN inference, this approach is able to perform feed-forward, concurrent and back-forward control respectively on a quantitative basis, and provide real-time support before and after an accident. A case study in relating to dynamic safety analysis in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is used to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, as well as its application potential. The relationships between the DBN-based and BN-based approaches are further discussed according to analysis results. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety analysis in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a dynamic project environment.

Keywords: Construction safety; Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN); Predictive analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Diagnostic analysis; Tunnel construction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:134:y:2015:i:c:p:157-168

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.021

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