A Bayesian approach to modeling two-phase degradation using change-point regression

Suk Joo Bae, Tao Yuan, Shuluo Ning and Way Kuo

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, vol. 134, issue C, 66-74

Abstract: Influenced by defects or contaminants remaining after a series of manufacturing processes, the degradation paths of some products exhibit two-phase patterns over the testing period. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian change-point regression model to fit the two-phase degradation patterns, and derives the failure-time distribution of a unit that is randomly selected from its population. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for the inference of the parameters in the change-point degradation model, as well as for the prediction of the failure-time distribution of the randomly selected unit. The proposed approach is applied to the degradation paths of plasma display panels (PDPs) presenting the two-phase pattern.

Keywords: Degradation modeling; Change-point regression; Failure-time distribution; Gibbs sampling; Hierarchical Bayesian modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:134:y:2015:i:c:p:66-74

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.009

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